Saturday, July 5, 2008

Political Price of the Nuke deal for the BJP

With SP lining up behind Congress, it's increasingly becoming clearer that the Indo-US nuke deal will go through. For the BJP it would be an ideal time to assess the lost opportunities and political price that they have to pay for being on the opposing side of the deal. Here is my assesment:
1.) Mr. Advani lost an opportunity to cast himself as a true statesman by rising above the partisan politics
2.) BJP's assumptions that the current governmnet won't be able to pass it through and that they(BJP) will be the one who will actually go down in the history to have made this historic deal failed miserably.
3.) By ensuring that congress and Left split on the issue, BJP has ensured that congress remains the main opposition in leftist states such as kerala, W.B. and Tripura. Congress will now become a credible opposition against the left whenever the elections happen.
4.) The SP, Congress and RJD coming together will consolidate the anti-BJP votes in UP, Maharastra and Bihar .
5.) By making Mr. Manmohan succeed in getting the deal through in the fairytale fashion, the BJP ensured that they can't tag him as the weakest PM any more. Manmohan singh is going to ensure his place in history and will make the "weakest PM" argument look extremely weak.
6.) BJP has given a big opening for the UPA to make them feel that they can come back to power again, which is really a big mistake.

Though, this whole development will have some potential benfits too for BJP as listed below:
1.) Distintegration of the UNPA, will ensure more alliance partners for the BJP.
2.) BSP will come closer to BJP, though this will depend upon what votebank will become more important to BSP in the case of realignment in UP.
3.) BJP can go with the propaganda of showing the deal as anti-national and later when it comes to power may renegotiate the deal thereby getting into a win-win situation, though this will depend upon how well they counter the media perception what with all the media hype and Dr. Kalam's argument.